Characterising a technology development at the stage of early emerging applications: nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors

In this paper we devise Future-oriented Technology Analyses tools to investigate a technology at an interesting development stage – namely, one of early emerging applications. At this stage, technologies show great potential with little commercialization in place. Future development pathways are highly uncertain and heavily dependent on contextual interactions. We apply R&D profiling, R&D to Applications cross-charting, and Technology Delivery System modelling to help understand the phenomena that bear upon development prospects. We develop our approach through a two-tier case study: general treatment of nanomaterial-enhanced biosensors, followed by more specialized treatment of one subset that applies nanoparticles. Results convey the importance of considering technological and social context factors in conjunction with each other to understand likely innovation pathways.